When and Why Are Campaigns’ Persuasive Effects Small? Evidence from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

نویسندگان

چکیده

Why do political campaigns so often fail to persuade voters, and what does this say about voter decision making? Some interpret the difficulty of persuading voters as evidence that remain loyal their parties even when confronted with new information. However, an informational (quasi-Bayesian) mechanism may also contribute. We test empirical implications these alternatives four survey experiments (total n = 113,742) conducted during 2020 presidential election exposed individuals 291 messages. Our results support quasi-Bayesian interpretation: show are more persuadable information candidates they know less about; persuasive messages change both candidate evaluations vote choices, induce partisan defection; content persuasive. These suggest voters’ reaction in a manner consistent Bayesian updating, not only loyalty, can help explain variation small size campaign effects.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: American Journal of Political Science

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['1540-5907', '0092-5853']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12724